Stock probabilities

Financial Modeling in Google Sheets

Erin Buchanan

Professor

Prices are lognormal

Results Graph

Financial Modeling in Google Sheets

Stock probability model

Log Normal Beginning Model

Financial Modeling in Google Sheets

Expected return k

Expected Return k

  • K $= \mu - \frac{Volatility^2} {2}$
Financial Modeling in Google Sheets

A range of values

Min and Max Values

$e^{(ln(Stock Price) + k \times Time) \pm (4 \times Volatility \times \sqrt{Time})}$

Financial Modeling in Google Sheets

Apple's range of prices

Min and Max Output

Financial Modeling in Google Sheets

Stock price steps to calculate on

Stock Steps

= (Max - Min)/200

Financial Modeling in Google Sheets

Entering the steps

Stock Step 2

  • First step: = Min Value
  • Next steps: = Previous value + Stock Step
Financial Modeling in Google Sheets

Finish the data table

Stock Step Final

Financial Modeling in Google Sheets

Let's practice!

Financial Modeling in Google Sheets

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