Risky business

Error and Uncertainty in Google Sheets

Evan Kramer

Instructor

Bring the noise

  • Noise
    • Unexplained variation

Linear model with regression line and shaded standard error bar

Error and Uncertainty in Google Sheets

Random numbers

  • Multiply predictions
  • =RANDBETWEEN(low, high)
Error and Uncertainty in Google Sheets

Random numbers

  • RANDBETWEEN(-100, 100)
    • Too much variation
  • RANDBETWEEN(-100, 100)/50
Error and Uncertainty in Google Sheets

Too random?

  • Challenge: Results "refresh"
  • Solution: Paste as values
Error and Uncertainty in Google Sheets

Adjusting data

  • Multiply and add product to actual data
    • Problem: Negative numbers
    • Solution: MAX() function
      • E.g., MAX(0,F2+(F2*H2))

Data table including column using MAX function to limit multipliers to positive numbers

Error and Uncertainty in Google Sheets

Framing effect

  • Choose between:
    • Sure gain of $250
      • (84% of respondents)
  • Choose between:
    • 25% chance of $1000, 75% chance of $0
      • (16% of respondents)
Error and Uncertainty in Google Sheets

Framing effect

  • Choose between:
    • Sure loss of $750
      • (13% of respondents)
  • Choose between:
    • 75% chance of losing $1000, 25% chance of losing $0
      • (87% of respondents)
Error and Uncertainty in Google Sheets

Framing effect

  • Conclusion: loss aversion
Error and Uncertainty in Google Sheets

Let's practice!

Error and Uncertainty in Google Sheets

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