Welcome to Forecasting Using R

Forecasting in R

Rob J. Hyndman

Professor of Statistics at Monash University

What you will learn

  • Exploring and visualizing time series

  • Simple benchmark methods for forecasting

  • Exponential smoothing and ARIMA models

  • Advanced forecasting methods

  • Measuring forecast accuracy

  • Choosing the best method

Forecasting in R

Course textbook

Hyndman, R. J. & Athanasopoulos, G. (2017)

Forecasting: principles and practice, 2nd edition

  • Free and online at OTexts.org/fpp2/

  • Data sets in associated R package fpp2

  • R code for all examples

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Forecasting in R

Time series data

  • Series of data observed over time

  • Eg.: Daily IBM stock prices, monthly rainfall in London,...

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Forecasting is estimating how the sequence of observations will continue into the future.

Forecasting in R
Forecasts of monthly Australian expenditure on eating out

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  • What forecasting methods are available that take account of trend, seasonality and other features of the data?

  • How to measure the accuracy of your forecasts?

  • How to choose a good forecasting model?

Forecasting in R

Let's practice!

Forecasting in R

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