Die Temperatur in einem Normal-See

Grundlagen der Bayes'schen Datenanalyse in R

Rasmus Bååth

Data Scientist

Das Modell, das wir bisher verwendet haben

temp   <- c(19, 23, 20, 17, 23)

temp_f <- c(66, 73, 68, 63, 73)

$$ \text{Normal}(\mu, \sigma)$$

rnorm(n = , mean = , sd = )

rnorm(n = 5, mean = 20, sd = 2)

20.3 24.1 22.4 24.7 21.6

rnorm(n = 5, mean = 20, sd = 2)

16.3 22.1 23.1 18.9 16.3

rnorm(n = 5, mean = 20, sd = 2)

20.3 20.9 18.0 16.8 22.6

temp   <- c(19, 23, 20, 17, 23)

temp <- c(19, 23, 20, 17, 23) 
like <- dnorm(x = temp, mean = 20, sd = 2)
like

0.176 0.065 0.199 0.065 0.065

prod(like)

9.536075e-06

log(like)

-1.737086 -2.737086 -1.612086 -2.737086 -2.737086

Grundlagen der Bayes'schen Datenanalyse in R