Marketing forecasting

Marketing Analytics per il business

Sarah DeAtley

Principal Data Scientist

Forecasting on KPIs

  • Forecasts can be set for KPIs at individual channel or marketing program levels
  • Create in partnership with finance — to use similar approach
  • Tells us what we expect this channel to deliver based on historical data and campaign goals

illustration of line graphs

1 Mediamodifier from Pixabay
Marketing Analytics per il business

Forecasting accuracy

image of detailed line graph report

  • Historical data consists of seasonal patterns, anomalies, longer-term trends

  • Forecasts separate historical data into discrete parts to isolate true trends

1 Pexels from Pixabay
Marketing Analytics per il business

Forecasting requirements

  • Multiple years: 2-3+ years of historical data for multi-year patterns (daily is best!)
  • Marketing anomalies: "we paused display for a month last July"
  • Seasonal changes: "Back to School" academic calendar spikes

icons showing years of data then marketing anomalies, then seasonal events

Marketing Analytics per il business

Forecast planning process

process diagram showing choose KPIs, select dimensions, determine time granularity, determine future forecast range, and refresh cadence

 

  1. Choose marketing KPIs
  2. Decide on marketing dimensions (e.g., channel, geography, etc.)
  3. Determine lowest common time granularity (e.g., daily, weekly, etc.)
  4. Determine how far into the future to forecast
  5. Decide on forecast refresh cadence (e.g., monthly, quarterly, etc.)
Marketing Analytics per il business

Forecast modeling options

 

Forecasts can range from simple equations to advanced machine learning models

  • Start with pre-built forecast functions in tools like Excel
  • Evolve into more advanced statistical models for fine-tuning
  • Statistical options include regression, econometrics, time-series, and others

 

various line graphs showing time-series data

1 Chris Liverani on Unsplash
Marketing Analytics per il business

Target setting

 

dartboard image

 

  • Forecasts are a great stepping stone to setting targets
  • First, estimate future performance based on seasonal expectations from forecast
  • Then, set targets relative to forecast to have reasonable goals
  • Marketing partners will advise based on domain knowledge
1 Rudy and Peter Skitterians from Pixabay
Marketing Analytics per il business

Let's practice!

Marketing Analytics per il business

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