Bayes çıkarımı için gereken parçalar

R ile Bayesyen Veri Analizinin Temelleri

Rasmus Bååth

Data Scientist

Üretici model nedir?

Üretici zombi ilaç modeli

# Parameters
prop_success <- ???
n_zombies <- ???

Üretici zombi ilaç modeli

# Parameters
prop_success <- 0.15
n_zombies <- 13

Üretici zombi ilaç modeli

# Parameters
prop_success <- 0.15
n_zombies <- 13
# Simulating data
data <- c()
for(zombie in 1:n_zombies) {
  data[zombie] <- ???
}

Üretici zombi ilaç modeli

# Parameters
prop_success <- 0.15
n_zombies <- 13
# Simulating data
data <- c()
for(zombie in 1:n_zombies) {
  data[zombie] <- runif(1, min = 0, max = 1) < prop_success
}

Üretici zombi ilaç modeli

# Parameters
prop_success <- 0.15
n_zombies <- 13
# Simulating data
data <- c()
for(zombie in 1:n_zombies) {
  data[zombie] <- runif(1, min = 0, max = 1) < prop_success}

data

FALSE FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE

Üretici zombi ilaç modeli

# Parameters
prop_success <- 0.15
n_zombies <- 13
# Simulating data
data <- c()
for(zombie in 1:n_zombies) {
  data[zombie] <- runif(1, min = 0, max = 1) < prop_success
}
data <- as.numeric(data)

Üretici zombi ilaç modeli

# Parameters
prop_success <- 0.15
n_zombies <- 13
# Simulating data
data <- c()
for(zombie in 1:n_zombies) {
  data[zombie] <- runif(1, min = 0, max = 1) < prop_success
}
data <- as.numeric(data)
data

0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0

Üretici zombi ilaç modeli

# Parameters
prop_success <- 0.15
n_zombies <- 13
# Simulating data
data <- c()
for(zombie in 1:n_zombies) {
  data[zombie] <- runif(1, min = 0, max = 1) < prop_success
}
data <- as.numeric(data)
data

0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Üretici zombi ilaç modeli

# Parameters
prop_success <- 0.15
n_zombies <- 13
# Simulating data
data <- c()
for(zombie in 1:n_zombies) {
  data[zombie] <- runif(1, min = 0, max = 1) < prop_success
}
data <- as.numeric(data)
data

0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0

Üretici zombi ilaç modeli

# Parameters
prop_success <- 0.15
n_zombies <- 13
# Simulating data
data <- c()
for(zombie in 1:n_zombies) {
  data[zombie] <- runif(1, min = 0, max = 1) < prop_success
}
data <- as.numeric(data)
data

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

Üretici zombi ilaç modeli

# Parameters
prop_success <- 0.15
n_zombies <- 13
# Simulating data
data <- c()
for(zombie in 1:n_zombies) {
  data[zombie] <- runif(1, min = 0, max = 1) < prop_success
}
data <- as.numeric(data)
data

0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0

Bu modeli bir dene!

R ile Bayesyen Veri Analizinin Temelleri