조건부확률

Python으로 배우는 확률 기초

Alexander A. Ramírez M.

CEO @ Synergy Vision

종속 사건

종속 사건 (계속)

$$P(Jack) = \frac{4}{52} \simeq 7.69\%$$

종속 사건 (계속)

$$P(Jack) = \frac{3}{51} \simeq 5.88\%$$

조건부확률 공식

$$ $$

$$P(A\ and\ B)=P(A)P(B)$$

조건부확률 공식 (계속)

$$ $$

$$P(A\ and\ B)=P(A)\color{red}{P(B|A)}$$

$$ $$

$$\color{red}{P(B|A)}=\frac{P(A\ and\ B)}{P(A)}$$

조건부확률

조건부확률 (계속)

$$P(Red|Jack)=?$$

조건부확률 (계속)

$$P(Red|Jack) = \frac{P(Jack\ and\ Red)}{P(Jack)}$$

조건부확률 (계속)

$$P(Red|Jack) = \frac{P(Jack\ and\ Red)}{\color{blue}{P(Jack)}}$$

조건부확률 (계속)

$$P(Red|Jack) = \frac{P(Jack\ and\ Red)}{\color{blue}{P(Jack)}} = \frac{X}{\color{blue}{\frac{4}{52}}}$$

조건부확률 (계속)

$$P(Red|Jack) = \frac{\color{red}{P(Jack\ and\ Red)}}{P(Jack)} = \frac{\color{red}{\frac{2}{52}}}{\frac{4}{52}}$$

조건부확률 (계속)

$$P(Red|Jack) = \frac{P(Jack\ and\ Red)}{P(Jack)} = \frac{\frac{2}{52}}{\frac{4}{52}} = \frac{2}{4} = \frac{1}{2}$$

조건부확률 (계속)

$$P(Red|Jack) = \frac{P(Jack\ and\ Red)}{P(Jack)} = \frac{\frac{2}{52}}{\frac{4}{52}} = \frac{2}{4} = \frac{1}{2}$$

P(Red | Jack)의 Python 계산

P_Jack = 4/52
P_Jack_n_Red = 2/52

P_Red_given_Jack = P_Jack_n_Red / P_Jack

print(P_Red_given_Jack)

0.5

조건부확률

$$P(Jack|Red)=?$$

조건부확률 (계속)

$$P(Jack|Red)=\frac{P(Red\ and\ Jack)}{P(Red)}$$

조건부확률 (계속)

$$P(Jack|Red) = \frac{P(Red\ and\ Jack)}{P(Red)}$$

조건부확률 (계속)

$$P(Jack|Red) = \frac{P(Red\ and\ Jack)}{\color{red}{P(Red)}}$$

조건부확률 (계속)

$$P(Jack|Red) = \frac{P(Red\ and\ Jack)}{\color{red}{P(Red)}} = \frac{X}{\color{red}{\frac{26}{52}}}$$

조건부확률 (계속)

$$P(Jack|Red) = \frac{\color{blue}{P(Red\ and\ Jack)}}{P(Red)} = \frac{\color{blue}{\frac{2}{52}}}{\frac{26}{52}}$$

조건부확률 (계속)

$$P(Jack|Red) = \frac{P(Red\ and\ Jack)}{P(Red)} = \frac{\frac{2}{52}}{\frac{26}{52}} = \frac{2}{26} = \frac{1}{13}$$

조건부확률 (계속)

$$P(Jack|Red) = \frac{P(Red\ and\ Jack)}{P(Red)} = \frac{\frac{2}{52}}{\frac{26}{52}} = \frac{2}{26} = \frac{1}{13}$$

P(Jack | Red)의 Python 계산

P_Red = 26/52
P_Red_n_Jack = 2/52

P_Jack_given_Red = P_Red_n_Jack / P_Red

print(P_of_Jack_given_Red)

0.0769230769231

사건을 조건부로 두어 확률을 계산해 봅시다

Python으로 배우는 확률 기초