在线营销中的流失预防

用 R 进行市场营销分析的机器学习

Verena Pflieger

Data Scientist at INWT Statistics

客户流失预防

用 R 进行市场营销分析的机器学习

二元逻辑回归

1）流失概率

$$ P(Y=1)$$

2）对数几率

$$ \log \frac{P(Y=1)}{P(Y=0)} = \beta_0 + \sum\limits_{p=1}^P \beta_p x_p $$

3）几率

$$ {\frac{P(Y=1)}{P(Y=0)} = e^Z ,\text{ with} \quad Z = \beta_0 + \sum\limits_{p=1}^P \beta_p x_p } $$

4）流失概率

$$ P(Y=1) = \frac{e^Z}{1 + e^Z} $$

用 R 进行市场营销分析的机器学习

数据探索 I

## 'data.frame': 45236 obs. of 21 variables:

## $ ID            : Factor w/ 45236 levels "1","3","5","7",..
## $ orderDate     : Date, format: "2014-12-23" "2014-09-10" ....
## $ title         : Factor w/ 4 levels "Mr","Company",..: 1 1 1 ...
## $ newsletter    : Factor w/ 2 levels "No","Yes": 0 0 0 1 ...
## $ websiteDesign : Factor w/ 3 levels "1","2","3": 2 1 1 3 ...
## $ paymentMethod : Factor w/ 4 levels "Cash","Credit Card",..: 3 4 ...
## $ couponDiscount: Factor w/ 2 levels "No","Yes": 1 0 0 0 0 1 ...
...
## $ returnCustomer: Factor w/ 2 levels "No","Yes": 0 0 0 0 ...
用 R 进行市场营销分析的机器学习

数据探索 II

ggplot(churnData, aes(x = returnCustomer)) +
    geom_histogram(stat = "count")

用 R 进行市场营销分析的机器学习

开始分析！

用 R 进行市场营销分析的机器学习

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