Valmodeller - under huven

Valmodellering för marknadsföring i R

Elea McDonnell Feit

Assistant Professor of Marketing, Drexel University

Multinomial logitmodell

v1 <- alpha * 4 + beta * 100 
v2 <- alpha * 5 + beta * 150 
v3 <- alpha * 2 + beta * 175
u1 <- v1 + error1
u2 <- v2 + error2
u3 <- v3 + error3
choice <- which.max(c(u1, u2, u3))
p1 <- exp(v1) / ( exp(v1) + exp(v2) + exp(v3) )
p2 <- exp(v2) / ( exp(v1) + exp(v2) + exp(v3) )
p3 <- exp(v3) / ( exp(v1) + exp(v2) + exp(v3) )
Valmodellering för marknadsföring i R

Skatta en multinomial logitmodell med mlogit()

m1 <- mlogit(choice ~ 0 + seat + price, data = sportscar, print.level = 3)
Initial value of the function : 2197.22457733622 
iteration 1, step = 1, lnL = 2059.32910491, chi2 = 269.32389751
            seat   price
param      0.113  -0.103
gradient -15.471 107.575
 ----------------------------------------
iteration 2, step = 1, lnL = 2058.96822672, chi2 = 0.71774347
           seat  price
param     0.121 -0.109
gradient -0.143  0.886
 ----------------------------------------
iteration 3, step = 1, lnL = 2058.96820087, chi2 = 5.171e-05
          seat  price
param    0.121 -0.109
gradient 0.000  0.000
Valmodellering för marknadsföring i R
summary(m1)
Call:
mlogit(formula = choice ~ 0 + seat + price, data = sportscar, 
    print.level = 3, method = "nr")
Frequencies of alternatives:choice
    1     2     3 
0.331 0.338 0.331 
nr method
4 iterations, 0h:0m:0s 
g'(-H)^-1g = 5.17E-05 
successive function values within tolerance limits 
Coefficients :
        Estimate Std. Error  z-value  Pr(>|z|)    
seat   0.1209849  0.0225714   5.3601 8.317e-08 ***
price -0.1086995  0.0072056 -15.0855 < 2.2e-16 ***
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Log-Likelihood: -2059
Valmodellering för marknadsföring i R

Indexerad valdata

sportscar.df$chid <- cumsum(sportscar.df$alt == 1)

sportscar <- dfidx(sportscar.df, idx = c("chid", "alt"),
                   choice = "choice")
Valmodellering för marknadsföring i R

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Valmodellering för marknadsföring i R

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