In-sample vs. out-of-sample evaluation

Introduction to Portfolio Analysis in R

Kris Boudt

Professor, Free University Brussels & Amsterdam

Bad news: estimation error

  • Limitation to data-driven portfolio allocation:

ch_4_video_3.003.png

Introduction to Portfolio Analysis in R

Bad news: estimation error

  • Limitation to data-driven portfolio allocation:

ch_4_video_3.004.png

Introduction to Portfolio Analysis in R

Bad news: estimation error

  • Limitation to data-driven portfolio allocation:

ch_4_video_3.005.png

Introduction to Portfolio Analysis in R

Good news: opportunities

  • Do not ignore estimation error
  • Use split-sample analysis to do a realistic evaluation of portfolio performance

ch_4_video_3.009.png

Introduction to Portfolio Analysis in R

Good news: opportunities

  • Do not ignore estimation error
  • Use split-sample analysis to do a realistic evaluation of portfolio performance

ch_4_video_3.012.png

Introduction to Portfolio Analysis in R

Good news: opportunities

  • Do not ignore estimation error
  • Use split-sample analysis to do a realistic evaluation of portfolio performance

ch_4_video_3.013.png

Introduction to Portfolio Analysis in R

Good news: opportunities

  • Do not ignore estimation error
  • Use split-sample analysis to do a realistic evaluation of portfolio performance

ch_4_video_3.014.png

Introduction to Portfolio Analysis in R

No look-ahead bias in optimized weights

  • Split-sample design matches with the investor who:

ch_4_video_3.017.png

Introduction to Portfolio Analysis in R

No look-ahead bias in optimized weights

  • Split-sample design matches with the investor who:

ch_4_video_3.018.png

  • Function window() to do split-sample analysis in R
Introduction to Portfolio Analysis in R

Let's practice!

Introduction to Portfolio Analysis in R

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